Kalshi Pushes to Repeal 1958 Onion Futures Ban for Prediction Markets
The prediction market startup Kalshi wants Congress to repeal a Depression-era law banning onion futures, which also blocks box office contracts.
Kalshi, a prominent prediction market platform, is lobbying to repeal a 67-year-old federal law that bars trading futures contracts on onions and box office receipts — a prohibition that directly limits the company's ability to expand its product offerings.
The Onion Futures Act of 1958 was passed by Congress after traders executed a brazen scheme to manipulate onion prices in the mid-1950s, flooding the market with supply to drive prices down after accumulating short positions. The scandal prompted lawmakers to ban futures trading on the vegetable entirely, making onions the only commodity in the United States explicitly prohibited from futures markets.
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Because prediction markets operate under regulatory frameworks that overlap with futures trading rules, the decades-old statute has had an unexpected side effect: it also restricts contracts tied to box office performance, a category Kalshi and similar platforms have sought to offer as Hollywood's financial ecosystem draws broader investor interest.
The push to repeal the law reflects the broader ambitions of prediction market companies, which have aggressively sought to expand the range of events and outcomes on which users can place contracts. Kalshi has already won legal and regulatory battles to offer election-related contracts, and repealing the onion ban would open additional commercial territory the company views as a natural extension of its business.
Whether Congress will take up the repeal remains uncertain, but the effort underscores how a niche agricultural statute from the Eisenhower era continues to shape the boundaries of modern financial markets in ways its authors could not have anticipated. Continue reading at NYT > Business.
